brexitmiyagi

I read crypto and macro as one market, because the balance sheets already overlap. Tether holds $114.96bn of US Treasury bills at a weighted average maturity under 90 days, which means it has to buy roughly $40bn a month simply to stand still, around a third of what the Federal Reserve rolls. That is one story, and almost nobody covers it as one. 

My work is primary source. I pull from Treasury's Monthly Statement of the Public Debt, the CFTC Traders in Financial Futures file, the Fed's H.4.1, NY Fed SOMA and on-chain data, and I compute the series myself when nobody publishes it. 

Two recent examples. I split Treasury's per-CUSIP redemption column by original tenor and found the 20-year being retired eight times harder than the 30-year, a cut nobody runs because the file does not present it that way. And I differenced Tether's circulating supply chain by chain to show $2.4bn arriving on Tron while $2.3bn left Ethereum, in a month the headline supply figure moved $229mn and hid both. 

I also found a reporting-category reclassification inside CME bitcoin and ether futures that had been read across the industry as a positioning shift, and showed it was one entity being relabelled across two contracts on the same two dates. 

What I care about most is being checkable. Every call goes into a public ledger with a falsifiable deadline, wins and losses kept, 139 of them so far. When a number I published decays, I say so before anyone else finds it. 

Available for contract and freelance research across macro, rates, stablecoins, on-chain flows and positioning. I build the data and write the note.